Foggy Bathroom Mirrors

Scenario: You're in a hotel bathroom enjoying a nice, hot relaxing shower...that is after you've played with the pulsating shower head and finally realized that it wasn't going to work except on that one setting, and after multiple attempts to get the shower curtain to stay all the way closed, you finally decided that it wasn't worth your time to even report it to the front desk.

Elated that, unlike your shower at home, you can run that piping hot water over your weary body for a long time without running out of hot water, you soak in the steamy, self-made sauna.

Suddenly, reality hits as you recall that you had reluctantly made a breakfast appointment with one of those pesky vendors. So, you grab one of those starchy white towels and step in front of the mirror.

The moment your feet hit the cold tile floor it occurs to you that maybe the hotel staff didn't clean that floor too well so you toss down another towel to stand on thereby ensuring that those feet of yours stay clean and don't cool down too fast.

Looking up, you are confronted with the reality that the mirror has been rendered useless and is covered in a thick steamy fog. What to do, what to do?

My friend, I have the answer for you. It is not a new fancy invention, but rather a method for fixing the problem. Here it is:

1. Open the bathroom door
2. Take a hand towel and roll it up so the roll is about 12 inches wide
3. Hold the rolled towel with two hands (one hand near either end)
4. Lean over the sink and place the towel on the mirror as high as you can reach
5. Press down on the towel and SLOWLY move the towel down the surface of the mirror (SLOWLY means that it should take 10 - 15 seconds to reach the bottom of the mirror)

By following the steps above, you will have a clear, fog-free mirror that will serve you well as you make adjustments to your appearance.

After you have tried my method, I would appreciate it if you would leave a comment on its effectiveness. Enjoy!

Is Project Management and Strategic Planning Unspiritual?

After discussing this topic with a number of leaders from Christian organizations, I have concluded that some leaders of Christian organizations believe that project management and strategic planning are in direct opposition to the concept of being led by the Holy Spirit. This is simply not the case. In fact, the Bible illustrates these disciplines for our advantage.

First, some terms for those that are not familiar with the project management area of study.

• A project is simply work that has a definite start and end.
• Ongoing work, operations, does not have a definitive start or end.
• Strategic planning is the excercise of formally documenting the answers to the questions: 1) where do I want to be? 2) where am I now? 3) how am I going to get there? 4) how will I know when I've arrived?

In project management, there are five (5) primary process groups: Initiating, Planning, Executing, Monitoring/Controlling and Closing. All of the activities of a project will fall into one of these five areas.

Examples of these activities demonstrated in the Bible...

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Initiating
Initiating a project is the act of defining the scope of a project and gaining executive sponsorship and support for the project. In Genesis, we see the Godhead agreeing to initiate the "project" of creating man. In order to do so, a suitable environment also needed to be created. The project had a definite start and end date (six earth days to be exact) and the Triune God was the sponsor.

"And God said, Let us make man in our image, after our likeness: and let them have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over the cattle, and over all the earth, and over every creeping thing that creepeth upon the earth." ~ Genesis 1:26

Planning
The planning phase consists of the activities associated with scheduling, budgeting and answering the "how are we going to do this project" questions. In 1 Peter we see an example of God performing planning activities.

"Forasmuch as ye know that ye were not redeemed with corruptible things, as silver and gold, from your vain conversation received by tradition from your fathers; But with the precious blood of Christ, as of a lamb without blemish and without spot: who verily was foreordained before the foundation of the world, but was manifest in these last times for you, who by him do believe in God, that raised him up from the dead, and gave him glory; that your faith and hope might be in God." ~ 1 Peter 1:18-21

Executing
Executing contains the activities in which the work actually is performed. Jesus, speaking to His mother Mary, indicates that the timeframe for His ministry on earth, which had been alloted during the planning phase, had not yet come. Jesus was intimately familiar with the "project schedule" which had been developed by His Father.

"And when they saw him, they were amazed: and his mother said unto him, Son, why hast thou thus dealt with us? behold, thy father and I have sought thee sorrowing. And he said unto them, How is it that ye sought me? wist ye not that I must be about my Father's business?" ~ Luke 2:48-49

"Jesus saith unto her, Woman, what have I to do with thee? mine hour is not yet come." ~ John 2:4

Monitoring and Controlling
Monitoring and Controlling consists of those activities, performed over the life of the project, that focus on ensuring that the project is meeting the intended objectives. Activies can include status reporting and quality assurance.

An interesting example of a Monitoring and Controlling activity is found in the book of Job.

Again there was a day when the sons of God came to present themselves before the LORD, and Satan came also among them to present himself before the LORD. ~ Job 2:1

Here we see God calling his subjects, including Satan himself, to give an update as to the status of the project which God has begun executing!

Closing
Closing a project consists of ensuring the project team members are transitioned off the project, closing contracts and any other final activities that need to be performed. Some examples of closing activies are:

"Blotting out the handwriting of ordinances that was against us, which was contrary to us, and took it out of the way, nailing it to his cross..." ~ Colossians 2:14

"And I saw a new heaven and a new earth: for the first heaven and the first earth were passed away; and there was no more sea." ~ Revelation 21:1

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When discussing the need for project management practices within Christian organizations, one leader indicated to me that he did not want his organization to be "institutionalized". He supported his statement with, "you cannot use the same concepts here that you use in the business world."

Really? The vast majority of Christian organizations have offices with telephones, computers, copiers, fax machines and a host of other items that have been developed by the business world.

I am suggesting that it was not the business world that developed the disciplines of project management and strategic planning, rather that these concepts originated in the mind of an incredibly organized God.

So what do I think this leader meant by his statements?

Suppose a minister gets called at 3AM to visit members in the hospital or intervene in a difficult family situation. In his mind, these were unexpected opportunities to serve his membership and were impossible to plan.

So, how do we build flexibility into the planning process when the nature of someone's work is unplanned? Simple. By keeping a log of past activities, it becomes easy to estimate the amount of unplanned work that occurs within a month, quarter or year. In a short time, it will become evident what percentage of unplanned work can be expected for certain activities. As a result, hours can be dedicated to unplanned activities and the remainder of the hours can be dedicated to projects and planned operational tasks.

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If you would like to discuss these or other topics further, feel free to contact me.

A Sketch of the Life of A. P. And Lillias Johnson

by Agnes Romie Johnson Meckfessel (also available in PDF) History records that in 1658 the extreme Southern part of Sweden was released from Denmark by the Treaty of Roskilde. It is recorded that at this time numerous families of noble birth and breeding settled in the valleys, building their castle-like homes, cultivating their fertile fields and raising their sleek cattle. Here for hundreds of years the lives of these people were ordered and stable, filled with a sort of peace and assurance. As the years went on, generation after generation, the families intermarried and the population spread out. Many families later drifted to the seacoast towns. The towns grew into cities. It was in the country where the great forests marched down to the placid lakes, abloom with water lilies, where stately beeches and feathery willows bordered the turbulent streams, that Andrew Peter Johnson was born. It was the year 1845, the date May 15. Perhaps the first sound he heard was the ecstatic twittering of birds which abounded in this land of lavender-tinted heather, rose-colored rhododendron, and sweet-scented yellow Honeysuckle. It may have been this beautiful environment where he first found himself that instilled in him the love so great for all nature that he always associated all things beautiful - whether it be a perfect flower, or a wave dashing on the rocks, breaking into a shower of diamond-like drops, with the Infinite. It was the happy songs of the birds he loved, intermingled with the faint tinkle of his Chinese wind harp that were the last sounds he heard when he died at his home in Sacramento, California one day after his eighty-ninth birthday on May 16, 1934. Read the rest of the story: http://www.eyelightmedia.org/andrew_peter_johnson.pdf

Dual Garbage Can Theory

Simple observation can lead to incredible discoveries. And, if you recall the scientific method from your high school science course, you may remember that observation can lead to a hypothesis, a hypothesis can lead to a theory and a theory can eventually become a law.

I am to the point in my research where I am proposing a new theory to the scientific community. The "Dual Garbage Can Theory" proposes that in a restaurant where two garbage collection bins are placed side by side near the exit, the one nearest the door is always less empty, 99% of the time.

Think about it. Next time you visit McDonald's, Wendy's, Burger King, Captain D’s, Chick-fil-A or any other fast food restaurant, when you deposit your trash, test my theory.

Are there exceptions to this rule? Of course there are. If the employees have recently emptied both trash bins, or conversely, if the employees have neglected to properly maintain the garbage collection area, the extremes will yield non typical results. But, I am certain that these anomalies can be predicted mathematically.

So, you may be wondering how knowing this theory of mine will benefit you. Well, it's quite simple really. It is knowledge that will save you time. Next time you are in a fast food restaurant, always go to the garbage can nearest the door because there will be room for your trash.

How often have you lifted the first door, only to find that it is completely full? You then lift the second door and there find room for your deposit. Each time you lift the first door may cost you five seconds of your time and possibly some level of subconscious disappointment or dissatisfaction with the effectiveness of the restaurant staff, thereby negatively affecting your psychological well being.

Over a lifetime, proper application of this theory could save you hours and maybe even days of effort (depending, of course, on how often you eat at restaurants that employ the dual garbage can model) and improve your overall quality of life since every time you go to deposit your trash, there will be room for yours. You can feel good about yourself knowing you made a wise decision based on scientific evidence.

I welcome feedback and further analysis of my theory from the Waste Management community, The American Journal of Psychiatry, Yum! Brands, Inc., the International Board of Environmental Health and Safety and any other organization that recognizes the value this research. I look forward with anticipation to the day this theory, having withstood the rigorous testing of the scientific community, will become a universally accepted law.

The Value of PERT Estimating

For the beginner, a PERT estimate is a method for estimating the duration of a task by taking pessimistic (P), realistic (R) and optimistic (O) estimates and using the PERT formula to derive a number which is slightly weighted toward the pessimistic side. The PERT formula is as follows:

PERT Estimate = (P + 4(R) + O) / 6

That is to say, take your pessimistic estimate (worst case estimate if everything goes totally wrong), plus 4 times your realistic estimate (what you think it will most likely take), plus your optimistic estimate (if everything goes perfect) and divide that sum by 6.

Now, if we throw probability into the mix, recognize that you only have a 50% chance of completing the task within the time frame that the PERT estimation formula provides.

To increase the probability, find the standard deviation by utilizing this formula:

Standard Deviation = (P - O) / 6

That is to say, take your pessimistic estimate and subtract your optimistic estimate and divide the result by 6.

Since the PERT estimate result yields a 50% probability, an 84% probability can be achieved by adding one standard deviation to the PERT estimate. A 97.5% probability can be achieved by adding two standard deviations to the PERT estimate, and a 99.5% probability can be achieved by adding three standard deviations to the PERT estimate.

For example, let's assume that you are driving from point A to point B. Your pessimistic estimate is 8 hours, your realistic estimate is 4 hours and your optimistic estimate is 2 hours. First complete the PERT estimate:

(8 + 4(4) + 2) / 6 = 4.333

Now calculate the standard deviation:

(8 - 2) / 6 = 1

The result:

You have a 50% probability of completing the trip in 4.333 hours
You have an 84% chance of completing the trip in 5.333 hours
You have a 97.5% chance of completing the trip in 6.333 hours
You have a 99.5% chance of completing the trip in 7.333 hours

And this is how PERT estimating, aligned with Standard Deviation, can provide you with an estimating methodology that you can use in almost any type of planning exercise.