Dual Garbage Can Theory

Simple observation can lead to incredible discoveries. And, if you recall the scientific method from your high school science course, you may remember that observation can lead to a hypothesis, a hypothesis can lead to a theory and a theory can eventually become a law.

I am to the point in my research where I am proposing a new theory to the scientific community. The "Dual Garbage Can Theory" proposes that in a restaurant where two garbage collection bins are placed side by side near the exit, the one nearest the door is always less empty, 99% of the time.

Think about it. Next time you visit McDonald's, Wendy's, Burger King, Captain D’s, Chick-fil-A or any other fast food restaurant, when you deposit your trash, test my theory.

Are there exceptions to this rule? Of course there are. If the employees have recently emptied both trash bins, or conversely, if the employees have neglected to properly maintain the garbage collection area, the extremes will yield non typical results. But, I am certain that these anomalies can be predicted mathematically.

So, you may be wondering how knowing this theory of mine will benefit you. Well, it's quite simple really. It is knowledge that will save you time. Next time you are in a fast food restaurant, always go to the garbage can nearest the door because there will be room for your trash.

How often have you lifted the first door, only to find that it is completely full? You then lift the second door and there find room for your deposit. Each time you lift the first door may cost you five seconds of your time and possibly some level of subconscious disappointment or dissatisfaction with the effectiveness of the restaurant staff, thereby negatively affecting your psychological well being.

Over a lifetime, proper application of this theory could save you hours and maybe even days of effort (depending, of course, on how often you eat at restaurants that employ the dual garbage can model) and improve your overall quality of life since every time you go to deposit your trash, there will be room for yours. You can feel good about yourself knowing you made a wise decision based on scientific evidence.

I welcome feedback and further analysis of my theory from the Waste Management community, The American Journal of Psychiatry, Yum! Brands, Inc., the International Board of Environmental Health and Safety and any other organization that recognizes the value this research. I look forward with anticipation to the day this theory, having withstood the rigorous testing of the scientific community, will become a universally accepted law.

The Value of PERT Estimating

For the beginner, a PERT estimate is a method for estimating the duration of a task by taking pessimistic (P), realistic (R) and optimistic (O) estimates and using the PERT formula to derive a number which is slightly weighted toward the pessimistic side. The PERT formula is as follows:

PERT Estimate = (P + 4(R) + O) / 6

That is to say, take your pessimistic estimate (worst case estimate if everything goes totally wrong), plus 4 times your realistic estimate (what you think it will most likely take), plus your optimistic estimate (if everything goes perfect) and divide that sum by 6.

Now, if we throw probability into the mix, recognize that you only have a 50% chance of completing the task within the time frame that the PERT estimation formula provides.

To increase the probability, find the standard deviation by utilizing this formula:

Standard Deviation = (P - O) / 6

That is to say, take your pessimistic estimate and subtract your optimistic estimate and divide the result by 6.

Since the PERT estimate result yields a 50% probability, an 84% probability can be achieved by adding one standard deviation to the PERT estimate. A 97.5% probability can be achieved by adding two standard deviations to the PERT estimate, and a 99.5% probability can be achieved by adding three standard deviations to the PERT estimate.

For example, let's assume that you are driving from point A to point B. Your pessimistic estimate is 8 hours, your realistic estimate is 4 hours and your optimistic estimate is 2 hours. First complete the PERT estimate:

(8 + 4(4) + 2) / 6 = 4.333

Now calculate the standard deviation:

(8 - 2) / 6 = 1

The result:

You have a 50% probability of completing the trip in 4.333 hours
You have an 84% chance of completing the trip in 5.333 hours
You have a 97.5% chance of completing the trip in 6.333 hours
You have a 99.5% chance of completing the trip in 7.333 hours

And this is how PERT estimating, aligned with Standard Deviation, can provide you with an estimating methodology that you can use in almost any type of planning exercise.

America, Don't Criticize Your Leaders

As I listen to the media, both “liberal” and “conservative”, I am grieved by the critical spirit that is so often expressed toward our national, state and local leaders.

This propensity has infiltrated the work place, the home, and unfortunately even the church. Why is it that so many Americans feel that it is their “God given right” to rant and rave about their elected officials? Let’s explore the direction that God has actually given in this regard.

First, we must understand that God Himself establishes our leaders.

“For promotion cometh neither from the east, nor from the west, nor from the south. But God is the judge: he putteth down one, and setteth up another.” – Psalms 75:6-7

“Daniel answered and said, Blessed be the name of God for ever and ever: for wisdom and might are his: And he changeth the times and the seasons he removeth kings, and setteth up kings: he giveth wisdom unto the wise, and knowledge to them that know understanding:” – Daniel 2:20-21

That's right...no matter who you voted for, it was God who promoted Ronald Reagan, George Bush, Sr., Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barak Obama to hold the office of President of the United States.

Second, we must understand that God Himself influences the decisions of our leaders.

“The king's heart is in the hand of the LORD, as the rivers of water: he turneth it whithersoever he will.” – Proverbs 21:1

“And the LORD hardened the heart of Pharaoh, and he harkened not unto them; as the LORD had spoken unto Moses.” – Exodus 9:12

In speaking to Pilate, “Jesus answered, Thou couldest have no power at all against me, except it were given thee from above: therefore he that delivered me unto thee hath the greater sin.” – John 19:11

That's right...whether you agree or disagree with the Bush's "War on Terror" or Obama's "Economic Stimulus Plan", it was God who ultimately permitted those decisions.

Third, we must understand that God expects us to submit to the leadership of the authorities He has established.

“Let every soul be subject unto the higher powers. For there is no power but of God: the powers that be are ordained of God. Whosoever therefore resisteth the power, resisteth the ordinance of God: and they that resist shall receive to themselves damnation. For rulers are not a terror to good works, but to the evil. Wilt thou then not be afraid of the power? do that which is good, and thou shalt have praise of the same: For he is the minister of God to thee for good. But if thou do that which is evil, be afraid; for he beareth not the sword in vain: for he is the minister of God, a revenger to execute wrath upon him that doeth evil. Wherefore ye must needs be subject, not only for wrath, but also for conscience sake. For for this cause pay ye tribute also: for they are God's ministers, attending continually upon this very thing. Render therefore to all their dues: tribute to whom tribute is due; custom to whom custom; fear to whom fear; honour to whom honour. Owe no man any thing, but to love one another: for he that loveth another hath fulfilled the law.” – Romans 13:1-8

When asked about paying taxes to Caesar, “And Jesus answering said unto them, Render to Caesar the things that are Caesar's, and to God the things that are God's. And they marvelled at him.” – Mark 12:17

Fourth, we must understand that speaking in an unrestrained, critical manner of the authorities God has established is unrighteous in God’s site.

Peter, in providing a definition of the “unjust” relates, “But chiefly them that walk after the flesh in the lust of uncleanness, and despise government. Presumptuous are they, selfwilled, they are not afraid to speak evil of dignities. Whereas angels, which are greater in power and might, bring not railing accusation against them before the Lord.” – 2 Peter 2:10

In the same manner, Jude writes, “Likewise also these filthy dreamers defile the flesh, despise dominion, and speak evil of dignities. Yet Michael the archangel, when contending with the devil he disputed about the body of Moses, durst not bring against him a railing accusation, but said, The Lord rebuke thee.” – Jude 1:8-9

We live in the greatest democracy in the world and have the opportunity to express our opinion through our vote and through our elected representatives, but once the ballots are cast, it is our responsibility to honor and submit to the leadership that God has ordained (unless the leader's direction is in direction violation of God's law).

Do not speak evil against your leaders. Pray for them.

What I'm NOT saying:

• I am not implying that you should not voice a well crafted argument in defense of Biblical principals. Christians should make a wise, humble appeal to government officials like Joseph in Egypt or Daniel in Babylon.
• I am not implying that you cannot disagree with the decisions of government officials. Rather, Christians should disagree in an agreeable manner.
• I am not implying that God causes men to sin.